INSIGHTS

2024.05.13

R&D DISCUSSION Vol. 52

Next-generation transportation and future urban planning [Part 2]

Professor Akinori Morimoto, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

R&D DISCUSSION TOP
[Photo 1] The Haga-Utsunomiya LRT "Light Line" opened in August 2023

Q: What examples and ideas are there for revitalizing next-generation transportation, which will be the core of "network-type compact cities"?

A: First, let me explain why LRT and BRT are called next-generation transportation. When considering future transportation methods for urban infrastructure, it is necessary to look at the relationship between transport capacity and road space. NACTO (National Association of Urban Transportation Officials) has conducted an analysis of how many and what types of roads are needed to move 10,000 people in one hour [Slide 1].
If 800 cars are allowed to travel in one lane, a 13-lane highway is required, but if 80 buses are allowed to travel in one lane, two lanes will suffice. Even if cars are made into self-driving vehicles and unnecessary distances between cars are eliminated, cars cannot be lined up at intersections, and they cannot turn right or left unless there is some extra space. The road space required for cars cannot be reduced much. What if "flying cars" with wings appeared? If 42 cars take off per minute, a 38-lane highway would be required. This is because even though the cars are traveling in the air, space for takeoff and landing must be provided on the ground.
In other words, the more dense a city is, the more densely it needs vehicles with high traffic density, and so LRT and BRT with a transport capacity of more than 100 people are needed as next-generation transportation. On the other hand, one lane each for walking and cycling can carry 10,000 people per hour. It is desirable for future urban infrastructure to utilize a balanced and intelligent combination of various transportation modes.

At the same time, transportation hubs also need to be reviewed. The "Study Group on Measures for the Use of Autonomous Driving Technology in Urban Transportation," established by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in 2017, is discussing infrastructure development to accommodate autonomous driving, such as optimizing roundabouts in front of stations. Tokyo also mentions the reallocation of road space, such as reducing the size of roadways and setting up autonomous driving lanes, in its "Urban Development Plan for an Autonomous Driving Society," published in 2022. Since road construction takes a considerable amount of time to begin, it is important to formulate infrastructure plans in advance, even before autonomous vehicles are on the roads.
In addition, the Minato Ward Comprehensive Transportation Plan, which was formulated in 2023, proposes a balanced and hierarchical deployment of existing and next-generation transportation [Slide 2]. Rather than having various modes of transportation enter the market piecemeal, the plan is to decide on a general direction in advance and then promote urban development.

In this context, efforts are underway to promote attractive urban development by developing and reconstructing the space in front of urban stations that serve as transportation hubs, incorporating next-generation transportation. In Japan's regional cities, it is not uncommon to find that there is nothing there when you get off at a station. Rather than viewing the station, station plaza, and surrounding urban area separately, the idea is to design the entire "ekimachi" space as a space where a large number of people with different purposes gather, travel, and stay.

最近の実例としては、2023年に運行を開始した栃木・宇都宮市のLRTが注目を集めました。私もその計画に長年携わっていたのですが、宇都宮市はネットワーク型コンパクトシティの交通網を具現化していて、最初は人口低密度の郊外で、コミュニティバスやジャンボタクシーのような「地域内交通」の運行を始めました。2008年に公共交通のない地域から循環運転を始めて、2022年には14地域まで拡大しています。幹線系と支線系でいうと、まず支線系をきちんと作ったわけです。
市街地である宇都宮駅周辺では、自転車レーンを整備して「自転車のまちづくり」を推進してきました。そして、2023年8月に中心市街地から郊外まで結ぶLRTが、満を持して開業しました［写真1］。
LRTが走る宇都宮駅東口から芳賀・高根沢工業団地までの区間は、もともと路線バスが1日36便ありましたが、1日256便まで増やしました。バスが1時間に1便程度だった区間で、10分以内にLRTに乗れるようになり、それを軸に路線バスを再編したことで、宇都宮駅からの到達圏は劇的に変化し、移動手段の選択肢が広がりました。
沿線開発も盛んになり、宇都宮駅から2駅までの区間には6階建て以上のマンションが次々と建設されました。開業後1ヶ月で平日の利用者は1万3000人。交通の便がよくなり、自由に移動できるようになれば、利用者が増えるわけです。交通環境の急激な変化は、将来の人口分布にも影響します。MaaS導入による将来人口分布の予測では、LRTの停留所周辺で人口が増加し、交通網から離れた地域で人口減少が見られます［スライド3］。実際の人口の変化も同じ傾向を示しており、着実にコンパクトシティ化が起こっていると感じています。

[Slide 1] Road space required for 10,000 people to travel per hour
[Slide 2] A transportation plan that links existing and next-generation transportation (Minato Ward, Tokyo)
[Slide 3] Simulation of population change due to introduction of MaaS

Q: Will the number of trips, which is declining due to current transportation, begin to trend upward with the spread of next-generation transportation such as LRT and autonomous driving? If you have any insight into how to restore an attractive town, please let us know.

A : 私の研究室では、本源需要の交通をテーマに調査・分析を行いました。研究室のメンバーに鉄道ファンが多いこともあって「人はなぜ移動するのか」をテーマに、いろいろ調べてみました。一般的に「交通」は派生需要と言われていて、できるだけ早く安く、快適に移動できることが求められます。一方で、本源需要は観光交通と言われる類のもので、わかりやすく例えると、テーマパークや遊園地のアトラクションは本源需要です。ジェットコースターが1秒で終点に着いたら、楽しくありません。一定の時間そこに乗って、移動そのものを楽しめる乗り物は、実は結構あるはずです。それが生活空間で増えていけば移動が苦にならず、利用者のウェルビーイングが上がるわけです。
では、どんな「交通」をつくればいいかというと、例えば歩道だったら、「もう一度歩きたいな」とか「もう少し長く歩きたいな」と思える空間が増えれば、人々の移動パターンが変わってくるかもしれません。そういう空間を設計することが、都市の付加価値を上げるのではないかと考えています。
交通インフラはこれまで何百年もの間、早く移動できることを優先してつくられてきましたが、楽しく移動できるという本源需要の部分をいかに引き出すか、そういう観点を設計コンセプトに入れていただくと、魅力あるまちづくりに繋がっていくだろうと思います。

  1. MaaS (Mobility as a Service): A next-generation mobility service that optimally combines multiple transportation services and performs search, reservation, payment, etc. all in one place. It corresponds to the movement (trip) of each individual, such as local residents and travelers, from the departure point to the destination, and the movement to introduce it globally is accelerating, mainly in Northern Europe and Europe.
  2. Primary demand: Transportation needs where the purpose is movement itself, such as walking, cycling, driving, and traveling
  3. Derived demand: Transportation needs that arise to achieve some purpose at the destination

[Photo 1 and Slide 1-3: Provided by Mr. Akito Morimoto]

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PROFILE

Professor, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University; President, City Planning Institute of Japan

Akinori Morimoto

Akinori Morimoto

Born in Yamaguchi Prefecture in 1964. Graduated from the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University. Doctor of Engineering, Engineer (Construction). Previously worked as a researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), assistant professor and professor at Utsunomiya University. Specializes in urban planning and transportation planning. His main research themes include next-generation transportation, compact cities, smart cities, TOD strategies, and traffic safety. He is currently the president of the City Planning Institute of Japan, executive director of the Japan Transport Policy Research Association, and representative director of the Disaster Prevention Academic Collaboration. He has served as chair of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's "Study Group on Measures for the Use of Autonomous Driving Technology in Urban Transportation," chairman of the Tokyo Metropolitan Land Use Review Board, and chairman of the Shizuoka Prefecture Urban Planning Council, among many others. His main publications include "Illustrated Urban Planning Made Easy" (edited and written by Gakugei Publishing, 2021) and "City and Transportation Planning: An Integrated Approach" (Routledge, 2021).

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