Thoughts on 3.11

Japan is said to be a country that is prone to natural disasters. Although its land area is just under 0.3% of the world's, it accounts for approximately 18% of the damage caused by disasters (2014 Disaster Prevention White Paper). This is due to Japan's meteorological and geographical characteristics, such as typhoons, volcanic activity, earthquakes, and steep topography, as well as historical and social conditions that have led to cities developing on alluvial plains, populations concentrating there, and assets being created.

In the past, people did not live in places prone to disasters, and even put meanings into place names to convey the horror of disasters to future generations. This was the wisdom of life. With the development of science and technology, it became possible to control disasters to a certain extent, and as cities became more urbanized, residential areas and areas of economic activity expanded. Even after suffering from disasters, they used the knowledge they gained to rebuild and develop their cities, aiming to make them stronger. Thanks to this, we thought we were able to live safe and secure lives.

However, cities have continued to become denser, larger, taller, and more underground. Modern cities are complex systems that are driven by information, energy, and logistics, and are controlled and operated efficiently by computers. Safety has also increased dramatically, but this has become something we take for granted, and our awareness of disasters has weakened, leaving risks latent. As a result, cities and people are inevitably becoming less resilient to disasters.

Research into disasters will continue to advance. For example, in earthquake research, approaches from social sciences such as historical materials will be applied to the engineering field, and standards will be established and updated. In addition, wider ocean surveys and analysis of large amounts of damage data using the latest computer technology will be carried out, elucidating previously unknown mechanisms. Disaster information such as hazard maps that show disaster risk and expected damage in numbers and diagrams, and disaster occurrence rates will be developed and provided through a wide variety of media. However, the easier the information is to understand, the greater the risk that people will easily believe it.

Natural phenomena are complex. They fluctuate widely. Many things are not explained in the first place, and unexpected things happen in reality. It is important to understand the background behind the creation of numerical values and standards under certain hypothetical conditions.

Past experience has also shown that simply meeting standards and building strong structures is not enough to create a safe city, but no one knows when or where the next major disaster will occur. In today's globalized economy, if a city were to malfunction, even for a short period of time, the impact would be immeasurable. We must recognize that cities move and function thanks to people, things, and information.

The intensive reconstruction period for the Great East Japan Earthquake, which was carried out on a scale of 26 trillion yen, ended in March of this year, and we are entering the next stage. Although there have been some successes over the past five years, there are still some areas that are only half-way there. Reconstruction from a disaster requires not only money but also a huge amount of time. We have already entered an era of population decline. While facing nature humbly, we would like to continue to constantly think about what is required for future urban development, without being bound by past experiences.